Riding profile

NY-26

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-26: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NY-26, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 26% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

KENNEDY, TIMOTHY

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Kennedy, Timothy

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
34.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 60.1%
  • Republican 25.9%
  • Other 14.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNY-26 60.1%25.9%14.0%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +8.3 46.6% −20.8 5.4% +8.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
27.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026