Riding profile

TX-13

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-13: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-13, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 100-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 70% vote share, against 30% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

JACKSON, RONNY LYNN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Jackson, Ronny Lynn

  • Democrat Challenger

    Nair, Mark

  • Republican Challenger

    Wedgeworth, Chasity

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 70.1%
  • Democrat 29.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-13 70.1%29.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +23.5 51.9% −22.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
99.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-59.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026