Riding profile

TX-13

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-13: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
35.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 67.5%

    Ronny Lynn Jackson incumbent

  • Democrat 32.5%

    Mark Nair

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-13 67.5%32.5%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +22.6 54.3% −21.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

TX-13, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 100-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 68% vote share, against 32% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

JACKSON, RONNY LYNN

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 3, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

MARK NAIR 100.0%

28,198 votes

Republican primary

Winner

RONNY JACKSON (I) 89.5%

71,554 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Jackson, Ronny Lynn

  • Democrat Challenger

    Nair, Mark

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
99.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-64.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026