Riding profile

TX-19

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-19: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 69.8%

    Tom Sell

  • Democrat 30.2%

    Kyle Rable

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-19 69.8%30.2%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +24.9 54.3% −24.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

TX-19, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 62-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 70% vote share, against 30% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ARRINGTON, JODEY

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held May 26, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

KYLE RABLE 100.0%

22,513 votes

Republican primary

Winner

TOM SELL 64.3%

32,243 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Rable, Kyle

  • Republican Open seat

    Sell, Tom

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
61.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026