Riding profile

TX-19

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-19: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-19, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 62-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 72% vote share, against 28% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ARRINGTON, JODEY

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Republican

Tom Sell 29%

6 candidates polled · Latest poll Feb 10, 2026 · byharper_polling

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Arrington, Jodey

  • Democrat Open seat

    Rable, Kyle

  • Republican Open seat

    Barbee, James Bob Mr.

  • Republican Open seat

    Corley, Jason

  • Republican Open seat

    Enriquez, Abraham

  • Republican Open seat

    May, Donald R

  • Republican Open seat

    Sell, Tom

  • Republican Open seat

    Smith, Matthew

  • Republican Open seat

    Zink, Ryan

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
44.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 72.4%
  • Democrat 27.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-19 72.4%27.6%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +25.8 51.9% −24.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
61.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-16.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026