Texas’s 19th District
U.S. House · TX-19
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 39.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-19 | 69.6% | 30.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+25.7 | 54.9%−24.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 33.8% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Arrington, Jodey · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Kyle Rable | 100.0% | 22,513 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Tom Sell | 64.3% | 32,243 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 61.6 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 39.2 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated