Winner
KATY PADILLA STOUT 52.1%
Riding profile
TX-23
The question
TX-23: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 88%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.6
- P(close race)
- 90%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTX-23 | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +6.3 | 54.3% −5.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
2 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC | 10–Mar 11 | 521 | RV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC | 10–Mar 11 | 521 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
TX-23, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
GONZALES, ERNEST ANTHONY TONY II
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 3, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
BRANDON HERRERA 43.3%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Open seat Stout, Katy Padilla
- Other Open seat
Williams, Veronica
- Republican Open seat
Herrera, Brandon
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026