Riding profile

TX-23

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-23: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-23, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

GONZALES, ERNEST ANTHONY TONY II

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Republican

Brandon Herrera 45%

5 candidates polled · Latest poll Feb 20, 2026 · bypolitical_intelligence

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Gonzales, Ernest Anthony Tony II

  • Democrat Open seat

    Enck, Gretel Marysdatter

  • Democrat Open seat

    Limon, Santos M.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Stout, Katy Padilla

  • Other Open seat

    Williams, Veronica

  • Republican Open seat

    Canseco, Francisco 'Quico' Raul

  • Republican Open seat

    Herrera, Brandon

  • Republican Open seat

    Rubio, Susan Storey

Current forecast

Republican

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.7
P(close race)
33%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.8%
  • Democrat 47.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-23 52.8%47.2%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +6.2 51.9% −4.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC 10–Mar 11 521 RV
Republican 47 Democrat 45
link
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC 10–Mar 11 521 RV
Republican 42 Democrat 40
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
24.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026