Texas’s 23rd District

U.S. House · TX-23

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 58% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.8 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 46%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 50.8%

Brandon Herrera
Democrat 49.2%

Katy Padilla Stout

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 58% chance (58% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	58%
Orbit	Republican	58%
50/50 blend	Republican	58%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
TX-23	50.8%	49.2%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+6.9	54.9%−5.7

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls, 3 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Normington, Petts & Associates House Majority PAC	5–Oct 7, 2026	—	likely voters	Brandon Herrera (R) 46 Katy Padilla Stout (D) 46	See the poll
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC Scenario 1	10–Mar 11, 2026	521	registered voters	Generic Republican (R) 47 Generic Democrat (D) 45	See the poll
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC Scenario 2	10–Mar 11, 2026	521	registered voters	Brandon Herrera (R) 42 Katy Padilla Stout (D) 40	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	57.7% (± 0.9)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Tony Gonzales · Republican

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Katy Padilla Stout	52.1%	30,828 votes
Republican primary	Brandon Herrera	43.3%	23,932 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Katy Padilla Stout
source
Other Open seat

Williams, Veronica

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Brandon Herrera
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 24.6 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.8 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

TX-11 Republican, safe seat
TX-21 Republican, competitive
TX-20 Democrat, safe seat
TX-19 Republican, safe seat
TX-16 Democrat, safe seat
TX-35 Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026