Riding profile

TX-16

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-16: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 63.7%

    Veronica Escobar incumbent

  • Republican 36.3%

    Adam Bauman

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereTX-16 63.7%36.3%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +9.4 44.9% −8.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

TX-16, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 64% vote share, against 36% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ESCOBAR, VERONICA

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held May 26, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

VERONICA ESCOBAR (I) 100.0%

54,031 votes

Republican primary

Winner

ADAM BAUMAN 68.5%

7,752 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Escobar, Veronica

  • Republican Open seat

    Adam Bauman

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
20.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.4 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 16 (48016) 83%
  • Congressional District 23 (48023) 17%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026