Riding profile

TX-16

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-16: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

TX-16, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ESCOBAR, VERONICA

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Escobar, Veronica

  • Republican Challenger

    Barraza, Manuel

  • Republican Challenger

    Cabildo, Hector Miguel Mr. Jr

  • Republican Challenger

    Montanez Berrios (Dmb), Deliris

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 60.9%
  • Republican 39.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereTX-16 60.9%39.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +9.1 46.6% −7.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
20.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.9 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 16 (48016) 83%
  • Congressional District 23 (48023) 17%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026