Texas’s 16th District
U.S. House · TX-16
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 98% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 98% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-16 | 65.5% | 34.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+10.6 | 43.9%−9.4 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Veronica Escobar · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Veronica Escobar | 100.0% | 54,031 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Adam Bauman | 68.5% | 7,752 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 20.0 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 31.0 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 16 83%
- Former district 23 17%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated