Riding profile

CA-48

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-48: will Republican lose this seat to Democrat?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 55.2%

    Marni Von Wilpert

  • Republican 44.8%

    Jim Desmond

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-48 55.2%44.8%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +0.8 44.9% −0.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Surveyusa KGTV-TV (California) | San Diego Union-Tribune Aug 27 – Sep 1 522 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 42
link
Lake Research Partners 9–Jul 14 500 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 46
link
Blueprint Polling 25–Oct 26 517 LV
Democrat 43 Republican 40
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

CA-48, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ISSA, DARRELL

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Top-two primary

Advanced to the general election

Jim Desmond 38.9%

73,508 votes

Advanced to the general election

Marni von Wilpert 20.8%

39,327 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Von Wilpert, Marni

  • Republican Open seat

    Desmond, Jim

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
14.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.6 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 48 (06048) 71%
  • Congressional District 41 (06041) 23%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026