California’s 48th District

U.S. House · CA-48

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 19%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 55.6%

Marni von Wilpert
Republican 44.4%

Jim Desmond

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 86% chance (92% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	92%
Orbit	Democrat	86%
50/50 blend	Democrat	89%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
CA-48	55.6%	44.4%
National averageUnited States	54.9%+0.7	43.9%+0.5

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

6 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Usc Democracy And Fair Elections Lab	22–Oct 27, 2026	474	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 44	See the poll
Tarrance Group	17–Oct 20, 2026	410	likely voters	Marni von Wilpert (D) 47 Jim Desmond (R) 44	See the poll
Surveyusa KGTV-TV (California) \| San Diego Union-Tribune	1–Oct 7, 2026	518	likely voters	Marni von Wilpert (D) 47 Jim Desmond (R) 38	See the poll
Surveyusa KGTV-TV (California) \| San Diego Union-Tribune	Aug 27, 2026 – Sep 1, 2026	522	likely voters	Marni von Wilpert (D) 45 Jim Desmond (R) 42	See the poll
Lake Research Partners	9–Jul 14, 2026	500	likely voters	Marni von Wilpert (D) 48 Jim Desmond (R) 46	See the poll
Blueprint Polling	25–Oct 26, 2025	517	likely voters	Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) 43 Darrell Issa (R) 40	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Issa, Darrell · Republican

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Top-two primary	Jim Desmond · Advanced to the general election	38.9%	73,508 votes
Top-two primary	Marni von Wilpert · Advanced to the general election	20.8%	39,327 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Marni von Wilpert
source
Republican Open seat

Jim Desmond
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 14.9 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 12.0 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 48 71%
Former district 41 23%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

CA-51 Democrat, safe seat
CA-25 Democrat, safe seat
CA-50 Democrat, safe seat
CA-52 Democrat, safe seat
CA-49 Democrat, safe seat
CA-40 Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026