Riding profile

CA-48

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-48: will Republican lose this seat to Democrat?

Editorial read

CA-48, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ISSA, DARRELL

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Marni von Wilpert 9%

8 candidates polled · Latest poll May 14, 2026 · bysurveyusa

Republican

Jim Desmond 29%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll May 14, 2026 · bysurveyusa

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Issa, Darrell

  • Democrat Open seat

    Campa-Najjar, Ammar

  • Democrat Open seat

    Chavez, Abel

  • Democrat Open seat

    Contreras, Corinna

  • Democrat Open seat

    Dixit, Anuj

  • Democrat Open seat

    Iannarino, Marc

  • Democrat Open seat

    Morrison, Curtis

  • Democrat Open seat

    Porter, Ferguson

  • Democrat Open seat

    Riker, Brandon

  • Democrat Open seat

    Till, Suzanne Marie Dr.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Von Wilpert, Marni

  • Republican Open seat

    Desmond, Jim

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.0
P(close race)
10%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 53.5%
  • Republican 46.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-48 53.5%46.5%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +1.7 46.6% −0.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Blueprint Polling 25–Oct 26 517 LV
Democrat 43 Republican 40
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
14.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.8 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 48 (06048) 71%
  • Congressional District 41 (06041) 23%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026