California’s 25th District
U.S. House · CA-25
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 90% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 90% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 95% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-25 | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+8.3 | 43.9%−7.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 57.1% (± 0.9) |
|---|
Current member
Raul Ruiz · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Raul Ruiz · Advanced to the general election | 60.0% | 88,699 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Joe Males · Advanced to the general election | 18.9% | 27,927 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 12.7 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 26.4 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated