Advanced to the general election
Raul Ruiz 60.0%
Advanced to the general election
Joe Males 18.9%
Riding profile
CA-25
The question
CA-25: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-25 | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +4.1 | 44.9% −3.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
CA-25, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
RUIZ, RAUL DR.
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Ruiz, Raul Dr.
-
Republican Challenger Males, Joe
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026