Riding profile

CA-25

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-25: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-25, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

RUIZ, RAUL DR.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Ruiz, Raul Dr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Males, Joe

  • Republican Challenger

    Truman, Ceci

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 55.7%
  • Republican 44.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-25 55.7%44.3%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +3.8 46.6% −2.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
12.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026