Riding profile

CA-52

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-52: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-52, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

VARGAS, JUAN C.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Vargas, Juan C.

  • Republican Challenger

    Belle, Jeffery Mr

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 61.9%
  • Republican 38.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-52 61.9%38.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +10.0 46.6% −8.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
21.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.4 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 48 (06048) 79%
  • Congressional District 52 (06052) 20%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026