California’s 52nd District
U.S. House · CA-52
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 40.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 98% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 98% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-52 | 70.2% | 29.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+15.3 | 43.9%−14.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Juan Vargas · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Juan Vargas · Advanced to the general election | 56.9% | 71,608 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Jeff Belle · Advanced to the general election | 33.5% | 42,090 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 21.4 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 40.3 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 48 79%
- Former district 52 20%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated