Advanced to the general election
Juan Vargas 56.9%
Advanced to the general election
Jeff Belle 33.5%
Riding profile
CA-52
The question
CA-52: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 29.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-52 | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +10.4 | 44.9% −9.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
CA-52, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
VARGAS, JUAN C.
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Vargas, Juan C.
-
Republican Challenger Belle, Jeffery Mr
- Other Open seat
Jeff Belle
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 48
(06048)79% - Congressional District 52
(06052)20%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026