California’s 51st District
U.S. House · CA-51
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 98% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 98% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-51 | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+8.7 | 43.9%−7.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Sara Jacobs · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Sara Jacobs · Advanced to the general election | 57.7% | 111,765 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Ricardo Cabrera · Advanced to the general election | 37.0% | 71,692 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 19.3 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 27.2 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 48 85%
- Former district 51 12%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated