Riding profile
CA-51
The question
CA-51: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Editorial read
CA-51, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
JACOBS, SARA
Sits with Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Incumbent Jacobs, Sara
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-51 | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 51.9% +9.7 | 46.6% −8.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 48
(06048)85% - Congressional District 51
(06051)12%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026