Advanced to the general election
Sara Jacobs 57.7%
Advanced to the general election
Ricardo Cabrera 37.0%
Riding profile
CA-51
The question
CA-51: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 28.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-51 | 64.4% | 35.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +10.0 | 44.9% −9.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
CA-51, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 64% vote share, against 36% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
JACOBS, SARA
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Jacobs, Sara
-
Republican Open seat Ricardo Cabrera
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 48
(06048)85% - Congressional District 51
(06051)12%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026