California’s 23rd District
U.S. House · CA-23
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 18%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 71% chance (92% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 92% |
| Orbit | Republican | 71% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 82% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-23 | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+11.9 | 54.9%−10.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Jay Obernolte · Republican
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Jay Obernolte · Advanced to the general election | 57.1% | 81,346 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Tessa Lynn Hodge · Advanced to the general election | 21.3% | 30,292 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 18.9 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 12.2 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 23 80%
- Former district 25 19%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated