Riding profile

CA-23

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-23: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

CA-23, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

OBERNOLTE, JAY

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Tessa Lynn Hodge 5.3%

6 candidates polled · Latest poll Mar 20, 2026 · bychange_research

Republican

Jay Obernolte 48.4%

1 candidate polled · Latest poll Mar 20, 2026 · bychange_research

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Obernolte, Jay

  • Democrat Challenger

    Chakalian, Paul

  • Democrat Challenger

    Claiborne, Alexis L

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hodge, Tessa Lynn

  • Democrat Challenger

    Wallis, Charles Patrick

  • Other Challenger

    Matthews, Karen

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 56.8%
  • Democrat 43.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereCA-23 56.8%43.2%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.1 51.9% −8.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
18.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.3 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 23 (06023) 80%
  • Congressional District 25 (06025) 19%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026