Advanced to the general election
Jay Obernolte 57.1%
Advanced to the general election
Tessa Lynn Hodge 21.3%
Riding profile
CA-23
The question
CA-23: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.3
- P(close race)
- 5%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-23 | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +9.2 | 54.3% −8.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
CA-23, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
OBERNOLTE, JAY
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Obernolte, Jay
-
Democrat Challenger Hodge, Tessa Lynn
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 23
(06023)80% - Congressional District 25
(06025)19%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026