Riding profile

IA-2

US House district — IA · Mixed · us ia

The question

IA-2: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

IA-2, a mixed riding in IA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

ARENHOLZ, ASHLEY HINSON

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Arenholz, Ashley Hinson

  • Democrat Open seat

    Dolter, Kathryn J

  • Democrat Open seat

    James, Lindsay

  • Democrat Open seat

    Techau, Kevin W

  • Democrat Open seat

    Twedt-Ball, Clinton Gene

  • Other Open seat

    Bushaw, Dave

  • Republican Open seat

    Blum, Rodney

  • Republican Open seat

    Lundgren, Shannon

  • Republican Open seat

    Mcclintock, Charlie

  • Republican Open seat

    Mitchell, Joe

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.6
P(close race)
60%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.3%
  • Democrat 47.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereIA-2 52.3%47.7%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +5.6 51.9% −4.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Public Policy Polling 13–Apr 14 673 RV
Democrat 36 Republican 33
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
15.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026