Winner
Lindsay James 57.8%
Riding profile
IA-2
The question
IA-2: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 93%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.5
- P(close race)
- 95%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereIA-2 | 51.1% | 48.8% | 0.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +6.2 | 54.3% −5.5 | 5.1% −5.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
2 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group House Majority PAC | 14–Jul 19 | — | LV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling | 13–Apr 14 | 673 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
IA-2, a mixed riding in IA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
ARENHOLZ, ASHLEY HINSON
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Joe Mitchell 61.5%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Open seat James, Lindsay
- Other Open seat
Bushaw, Dave
- Republican Open seat
Mitchell, Joe
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026