Iowa’s 2nd District

U.S. House · IA-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 61% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.0 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 50%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 51.0%

Lindsay James
Republican 49.0%

Joe Mitchell

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks a different favourite: the Republican, with a 61% chance, while Harfang des neiges favours the Democrat (61%).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	61%
Orbit	Republican	61%
50/50 blend	Republican	50%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
IA-2	51.0%	49.0%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−3.9	43.9%+5.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Emerson College Poll Vault	12–Oct 14, 2026	344	likely voters	Lindsay James (D) 50 Joe Mitchell (R) 47	See the poll
Global Strategy Group House Majority PAC	14–Jul 19, 2026	—	likely voters	Lindsay James (D) 46 Joe Mitchell (R) 45	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	13–Apr 14, 2026	673	registered voters	Lindsay James (D) 36 Joe Mitchell (R) 33	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	2.5% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Arenholz, Ashley Hinson · Republican

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Lindsay James	57.8%	27,717 votes
Republican primary	Joe Mitchell	61.5%	24,413 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Kathy Dolter

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Democrat Open seat

Lindsay James
source
Other Open seat

Bushaw, Dave

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Joe Mitchell
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 15.6 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 6.0 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

IA-1 Democrat, competitive
IA-3 Democrat, toss-up
IA-4 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026