Iowa’s 4th District
U.S. House · IA-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 95% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 95% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 97% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| IA-4 | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+16.1 | 54.9%−14.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 5.8% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Feenstra, Randall · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Dave Dawson | 39.1% | 11,291 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Chris McGowan | 100.0% | 55,077 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 34.3 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 20.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated