Riding profile

IA-4

US House district — IA · Mixed · us ia

The question

IA-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 61.0%

    Chris McGowan

  • Democrat 39.0%

    Dave Dawson

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereIA-4 61.0%39.0%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +16.1 54.3% −15.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

IA-4, a mixed riding in IA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FEENSTRA, RANDALL

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Dave Dawson 39.1%

11,291 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Chris McGowan 100.0%

55,077 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Dawson, Dave

  • Republican Open seat

    Mcgowan, Chris

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
34.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026