Riding profile

IA-4

US House district — IA · Mixed · us ia

The question

IA-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

IA-4, a mixed riding in IA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 64% vote share, against 36% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FEENSTRA, RANDALL

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Feenstra, Randall

  • Democrat Open seat

    Dawson, Dave

  • Democrat Open seat

    Melton, Ryan Michael Appleton

  • Democrat Open seat

    Wolftornabane, Ashley

  • Republican Open seat

    Jensen, Douglas

  • Republican Open seat

    Mcgowan, Chris

  • Republican Open seat

    Rhodes, Ryan

  • Republican Open seat

    Schlaefer, Christian

  • Republican Open seat

    Windschitl, Matt

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 63.7%
  • Democrat 36.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereIA-4 63.7%36.3%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +17.0 51.9% −15.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
34.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026