Riding profile

IA-3

US House district — IA · Mixed · us ia

The question

IA-3: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

IA-3, a mixed riding in IA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

NUNN, ZACH

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Nunn, Zach

  • Democrat Challenger

    Konfrst, Jennifer

  • Democrat Challenger

    Trone Garriott, Sarah

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
85%
Mean margin (pts)
1.7
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 50.7%
  • Democrat 49.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereIA-3 50.7%49.3%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +4.1 51.9% −2.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America 12–Mar 14 400 LV
Republican 44 Democrat 43
link
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America 12–Mar 14 400 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 42
link
Change Research 23–Oct 27 638 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 42
link
Public Policy Polling 17–Sep 18 717 RV
Democrat 44 Republican 44
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
3.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026