Winner
Sarah Trone Garriott 100.0%
Riding profile
IA-3
The question
IA-3: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Democrat
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.4
- P(close race)
- 42%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereIA-3 | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% −1.6 | 44.9% +2.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
4 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America | 12–Mar 14 | 400 | LV | link | |
| Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America | 12–Mar 14 | 400 | LV | link | |
| Change Research | 23–Oct 27 | 638 | LV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling | 17–Sep 18 | 717 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
IA-3, a mixed riding in IA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
NUNN, ZACH
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Zach Nunn 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Nunn, Zach
- Democrat Challenger
Trone Garriott, Sarah
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026