Iowa’s 3rd District

U.S. House · IA-3

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 79% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.4 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 40%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 52.8%

Sarah Trone Garriott
Republican 47.2%

Zach Nunn, incumbent

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 71% chance (79% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	79%
Orbit	Democrat	71%
50/50 blend	Democrat	75%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
IA-3	52.8%	47.2%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−2.1	43.9%+3.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls, 4 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 1	12–Mar 14, 2026	400	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 44 Generic Democrat (D) 43	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 2	12–Mar 14, 2026	400	likely voters	Zach Nunn (R) 48 Sarah Trone Garriott (D) 42	See the poll
Change Research	23–Oct 27, 2025	638	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 45 Generic Republican (R) 42	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	17–Sep 18, 2025	717	registered voters	Jennifer Konfrst (D) 44 Zach Nunn (R) 44	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	5.0% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Zach Nunn · Republican

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Sarah Trone Garriott	100.0%	54,662 votes
Republican primary	Zach Nunn	100.0%	48,309 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Zach Nunn
source
Democrat Challenger

Sarah Trone Garriott
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 3.8 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 7.4 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

IA-4 Republican, safe seat
IA-1 Democrat, competitive
IA-2 Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026