Riding profile

IA-1

US House district — IA · Mixed · us ia

The question

IA-1: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

IA-1, a mixed riding in IA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

MILLER-MEEKS, MARIANNETTE JANE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Miller-Meeks, Mariannette Jane

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bohannan, Christina

  • Democrat Challenger

    Terrell, Travis

  • Democrat Challenger

    Wettach, Taylor

  • Republican Challenger

    Pautsch, David Alfred Mr.

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
2.4
P(close race)
97%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 51.2%
  • Republican 48.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereIA-1 51.2%48.8%
National averageUnited States 51.9% −0.7 46.6% +2.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC 18–Jun 19 555 RV
Democrat 43 Republican 39
link
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC 18–Jun 19 555 RV
Republican 45 Democrat 42
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
0.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026