Riding profile

IA-1

US House district — IA · Mixed · us ia

The question

IA-1: will Republican lose this seat to Democrat?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.4
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 53.1%

    Christina Bohannan

  • Republican 44.7%

    Mariannette Jane Miller-Meeks incumbent

  • Other 2.2%

    Michael Bridgford IND

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereIA-1 53.1%44.7%2.2%
National averageUnited States 54.3% −1.2 44.9% −0.2 5.1% −2.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
The Bullfinch Group Independent Center | Independent Leadership Council 13–Jul 16 705 LV
Democrat 40 Republican 35
link
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC 18–Jun 19 555 RV
Democrat 43 Republican 39
link
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC 18–Jun 19 555 RV
Republican 45 Democrat 42
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

IA-1, a mixed riding in IA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 53% vote share, against 45% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MILLER-MEEKS, MARIANNETTE JANE

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Christina Bohannan 81.5%

42,862 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Mariannette Miller-Meeks 71.6%

35,182 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Miller-Meeks, Mariannette Jane

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bohannan, Christina

  • Other Challenger

    Bridgford, Michael

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
0.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026