Iowa’s 1st District

U.S. House · IA-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 89% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 26%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 53.7%

Christina Bohannan
Republican 45.0%

Mariannette Miller-Meeks, incumbent
Other 1.3%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 79% chance (89% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	89%
Orbit	Democrat	79%
50/50 blend	Democrat	84%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
IA-1	53.7%	45.0%	1.3%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−1.2	43.9%+1.1	1.2%

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls, 3 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The Bullfinch Group Independent Center \| Independent Leadership Council	13–Jul 16, 2026	705	likely voters	Christina Bohannan (D) 40 Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) 35 Michael Bridgford (Ind.) 11	See the poll
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC Scenario 1	18–Jun 19, 2025	555	registered voters	Christina Bohannan (D) 43 Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) 39	See the poll
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC Scenario 2	18–Jun 19, 2025	555	registered voters	Generic Republican (R) 45 Generic Democrat (D) 42	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	4.4% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Mariannette Miller-Meeks · Republican

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Christina Bohannan	81.5%	42,862 votes
Republican primary	Mariannette Miller-Meeks	71.6%	35,182 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Mariannette Miller-Meeks
source
Democrat Challenger

Christina Bohannan
source
Other Challenger

Bridgford, Michael

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 0.2 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 9.6 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

IA-2 Democrat, toss-up
IA-3 Democrat, toss-up
IA-4 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026