Riding profile
ID-1
The question
ID-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 30.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereID-1 | 61.9% | 31.9% | 6.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +17.0 | 54.3% −22.4 | 5.1% +1.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
3 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 28–Jul 30 | — | LV | link | |
| Change Research | 28–Jul 30 | — | LV | link | |
| Surveyusa | 7–Jul 14 | 480 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
ID-1, a mixed riding in ID, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 43-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 62% vote share, against 32% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
FULCHER, RUSSELL
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Other Challenger
Zabel, Sarah
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026