Idaho’s 1st District

U.S. House · ID-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 62.7%

Russ Fulcher, incumbent
Democrat 31.5%

Kaylee Peterson
Other 5.8%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	> 99%
Orbit	Republican	> 99%
50/50 blend	Republican	> 99%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
ID-1	62.7%	31.5%	5.8%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+18.8	54.9%−23.4	1.2%+4.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls, 4 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Votenexus Knock Every Door PAC	21–Oct 22, 2026	—	likely voters	Russ Fulcher (R) 52 Kaylee Peterson (D) 26 Brendan Gomez (CON) 6 Sarah Zabel (Ind.) 5	See the poll
Change Research Scenario 1	28–Jul 30, 2026	—	likely voters	Russ Fulcher (R) 46 Sarah Zabel (Ind.) 26 Brendan Gomez (CON) 4	See the poll
Change Research Scenario 2	28–Jul 30, 2026	—	likely voters	Russ Fulcher (R) 48 Kaylee Peterson (D) 27 Sarah Zabel (Ind.) 5	See the poll
Surveyusa	7–Jul 14, 2026	480	likely voters	Russ Fulcher (R) 45 Kaylee Peterson (D) 35 Sarah Zabel (Ind.) 6	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	8.9% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Russ Fulcher · Republican

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Kaylee Peterson	87.1%	18,907 votes
Republican primary	Russ Fulcher	78.2%	100,104 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Russ Fulcher
source
Democrat Challenger

Kaylee Peterson
source
Other Challenger

Zabel, Sarah

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 43.4 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 31.1 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

ID-2 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026