Riding profile

ID-1

US House district — ID · Mixed · us id

The question

ID-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

ID-1, a mixed riding in ID, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 43-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 66% vote share, against 28% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FULCHER, RUSSELL

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Fulcher, Russell

  • Democrat Challenger

    Brungardt, Kenneth Francis Jr

  • Democrat Challenger

    Peterson, Kaylee Jade

  • Other Challenger

    Zabel, Sarah

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
38.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 66.4%
  • Democrat 28.0%
  • Other 5.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereID-1 66.4%28.0%5.6%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +19.8 51.9% −23.8 5.4% +0.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
43.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026