Idaho’s 2nd District

U.S. House · ID-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 53.9%

Mike Simpson, incumbent
Democrat 35.9%

Elinor Gilbreath
Other 10.2%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 92% chance (99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	99%
Orbit	Republican	92%
50/50 blend	Republican	96%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
ID-2	53.9%	35.9%	10.2%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+10.0	54.9%−19.0	1.2%+8.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Votenexus Knock Every Door PAC	21–Oct 22, 2026	—	likely voters	Mike Simpson (R) 46 Ellie Gilbreath (D) 31 Tripp Hutchinson (Ind.) 5 Emre Houser (Ind.) 5 Will Johanson (Lib.) 2	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	10.0% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Mike Simpson · Republican

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Elinor Gilbreath	72.5%	19,523 votes
Republican primary	Mike Simpson	63.3%	63,448 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Mike Simpson
source
Democrat Challenger

Elinor Gilbreath
source
Other Challenger

Hutchinson, Tripp Charles

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 28.9 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 18.1 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

ID-1 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026