Riding profile

ID-2

US House district — ID · Mixed · us id

The question

ID-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.1%
  • Democrat 35.6%
  • Other 10.3%

    Tripp Charles Hutchinson IND

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereID-2 54.1%35.6%10.3%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +9.2 54.3% −18.7 5.1% +5.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

ID-2, a mixed riding in ID, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 36% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SIMPSON, MICHAEL

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Hutchinson, Tripp Charles

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
28.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026