Riding profile

ID-2

US House district — ID · Mixed · us id

The question

ID-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

ID-2, a mixed riding in ID, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 33% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SIMPSON, MICHAEL

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Simpson, Michael

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gilbreath, Elinor

  • Democrat Challenger

    Wiley, Julie Marisa

  • Republican Challenger

    Shumway, Perry

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.2%
  • Democrat 33.2%
  • Other 9.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereID-2 57.2%33.2%9.6%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.5 51.9% −18.7 5.4% +4.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
28.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026