California’s 22nd District

U.S. House · CA-22

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 84% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.3 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 30%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 53.9%

Randy Villegas
Republican 46.1%

David G. Valadao, incumbent

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 76% chance (84% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	84%
Orbit	Democrat	76%
50/50 blend	Democrat	80%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
CA-22	53.9%	46.1%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−1.0	43.9%+2.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls, 4 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Usc Democracy And Fair Elections Lab	22–Oct 28, 2026	356	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 44	See the poll
Tulchin Research House Majority PAC	15–Jun 21, 2026	800	likely voters	Randy Villegas (D) 48 David G. Valadao (R) 44	See the poll
Public Policy Polling ASPIRE PAC \| SEIU Scenario 1	6–Aug 8, 2025	547	registered voters	Democrat 42 Republican 42	See the poll
Public Policy Polling ASPIRE PAC \| SEIU Scenario 2	6–Aug 8, 2025	547	registered voters	Democrat 44 Republican 42	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

David G. Valadao · Republican

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Top-two primary	David G. Valadao · Advanced to the general election	40.7%	32,491 votes
Top-two primary	Randy Villegas · Advanced to the general election	32.4%	25,808 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

David G. Valadao
source
Democrat Challenger

Randy Villegas
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 5.0 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 9.3 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 22 69%
Former district 13 29%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

CA-21 Democrat, safe seat
CA-20 Republican, safe seat
CA-24 Democrat, safe seat
CA-5 Republican, safe seat
CA-18 Democrat, safe seat
CA-26 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026