Riding profile

CA-22

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-22: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

CA-22, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

VALADAO, DAVID

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Randy Villegas 25%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll May 6, 2026 · bydata_for_progress

Republican

David G. Valadao 44%

1 candidate polled · Latest poll May 6, 2026 · bydata_for_progress

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Valadao, David

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bains, Jasmeet

  • Democrat Challenger

    Salas, Rudy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Villegas, Randy

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
2.7
P(close race)
95%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 51.3%
  • Republican 48.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-22 51.3%48.7%
National averageUnited States 51.9% −0.5 46.6% +2.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Public Policy Polling ASPIRE PAC | SEIU 6–Aug 8 547 RV
Democrat 42 Republican 42
link
Public Policy Polling ASPIRE PAC | SEIU 6–Aug 8 547 RV
Democrat 44 Republican 42
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
5.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.3 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 22 (06022) 69%
  • Congressional District 13 (06013) 29%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026