Riding profile

CA-22

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-22: will Republican lose this seat to Democrat?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.4
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 54.2%

    Randy Villegas

  • Republican 45.8%

    David Valadao incumbent

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-22 54.2%45.8%
National averageUnited States 54.3% −0.1 44.9% +0.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Tulchin Research House Majority PAC 15–Jun 21 800 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 44
link
Public Policy Polling ASPIRE PAC | SEIU 6–Aug 8 547 RV
Democrat 42 Republican 42
link
Public Policy Polling ASPIRE PAC | SEIU 6–Aug 8 547 RV
Democrat 44 Republican 42
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

CA-22, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

VALADAO, DAVID

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Top-two primary

Advanced to the general election

David G. Valadao 40.7%

32,491 votes

Advanced to the general election

Randy Villegas 32.4%

25,808 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Valadao, David

  • Democrat Challenger

    Villegas, Randy

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
5.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.4 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 22 (06022) 69%
  • Congressional District 13 (06013) 29%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026