Riding profile

CA-24

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-24: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
36.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 68.2%

    Salud O. Carbajal incumbent

  • Republican 31.8%

    Robert Bob J Smith

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-24 68.2%31.8%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +13.8 44.9% −13.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

CA-24, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 68% vote share, against 32% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CARBAJAL, SALUD O.

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Top-two primary

Advanced to the general election

Salud Carbajal 54.4%

113,716 votes

Advanced to the general election

Bob Smith 35.9%

75,085 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Carbajal, Salud O.

  • Republican Challenger

    Smith, Robert Bob J

  • Other Open seat

    Bob Smith

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
25.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026