California’s 24th District
U.S. House · CA-24
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 36.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-24 | 68.3% | 31.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+13.4 | 43.9%−12.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 28.6% (± 0.5) |
|---|
Current member
Salud Carbajal · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Salud Carbajal · Advanced to the general election | 54.4% | 113,716 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Bob Smith · Advanced to the general election | 35.9% | 75,085 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 25.4 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 36.5 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated