Riding profile

CA-24

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-24: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-24, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CARBAJAL, SALUD O.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Carbajal, Salud O.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bacon, Sarah

  • Republican Challenger

    Smith, Robert Bob J

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 65.3%
  • Republican 34.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-24 65.3%34.6%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +13.5 46.6% −12.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
25.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026