Riding profile

CA-20

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-20: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

CA-20, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 91-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 63% vote share, against 37% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FONG, VINCE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Fong, Vince

  • Democrat Challenger

    Roper, Carol Kristina

  • Democrat Challenger

    Van Scotter, Sandra

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 63.1%
  • Democrat 36.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereCA-20 63.1%36.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +16.5 51.9% −15.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
90.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-64.7 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 20 (06020) 90%
  • Congressional District 22 (06022) 7%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026