Advanced to the general election
Vince Fong 68.2%
Advanced to the general election
Sandra Van Scotter 28.8%
Riding profile
CA-20
The question
CA-20: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-20 | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +15.6 | 54.3% −14.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
CA-20, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 91-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 61% vote share, against 40% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
FONG, VINCE
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Fong, Vince
-
Democrat Challenger Van Scotter, Sandra
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 20
(06020)90% - Congressional District 22
(06022)7%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026