California’s 20th District
U.S. House · CA-20
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 93% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 93% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 96% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-20 | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+16.5 | 54.9%−15.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Vince Fong · Republican
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Vince Fong · Advanced to the general election | 68.2% | 115,035 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Sandra Van Scotter · Advanced to the general election | 28.8% | 48,611 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 90.9 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 20.7 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 20 90%
- Former district 22 7%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated