California’s 21st District
U.S. House · CA-21
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 90% chance (99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 90% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 94% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-21 | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+4.8 | 43.9%−3.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 56.8% (± 0.9) |
|---|
Current member
Jim Costa · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Jim Costa · Advanced to the general election | 42.2% | 43,461 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Kyle Kirkland · Advanced to the general election | 26.3% | 27,076 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 7.3 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 19.5 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated