Riding profile

CA-18

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-18: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-18, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 67% vote share, against 33% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LOFGREN, ZOE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Lofgren, Zoe

  • Democrat Challenger

    Acevedo-Arreguin, Luis Antonio

  • Other Challenger

    Demers, Christopher

  • Republican Challenger

    Lewis, Shane

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
34.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 67.0%
  • Republican 33.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-18 67.0%33.0%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +15.2 46.6% −13.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
23.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.9 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 18 (06018) 77%
  • Congressional District 13 (06013) 17%
  • Congressional District 22 (06022) 6%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026