Advanced to the general election
Zoe Lofgren 54.9%
Advanced to the general election
Shane Lewis 29.3%
Riding profile
CA-18
The question
CA-18: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 39.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-18 | 69.9% | 30.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +15.5 | 44.9% −14.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
CA-18, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 70% vote share, against 30% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
LOFGREN, ZOE
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Lofgren, Zoe
- Other Challenger
Demers, Christopher
-
Republican Challenger Lewis, Shane
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 18
(06018)77% - Congressional District 13
(06013)17% - Congressional District 22
(06022)6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026