California’s 13th District
U.S. House · CA-13
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 7%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 80% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | 98% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 80% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 89% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-13 | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+3.5 | 43.9%−2.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 54.6% (± 0.9) |
|---|
Current member
Adam Gray · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Adam Gray · Advanced to the general election | 42.0% | 41,086 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Kevin Lincoln · Advanced to the general election | 27.7% | 27,157 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 0.3 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 17.1 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated