Riding profile

CA-19

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-19: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-19, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 70% vote share, against 30% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

PANETTA, JIMMY

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Panetta, Jimmy

  • Other Challenger

    Dougherty, Sean Jacob

  • Republican Challenger

    Verbica, Peter Coe

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 70.2%
  • Republican 29.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-19 70.2%29.9%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +18.3 46.6% −16.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
38.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026