California’s 5th District
U.S. House · CA-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 10%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 74% chance (96% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 96% |
| Orbit | Republican | 74% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 85% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-5 | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+13.4 | 54.9%−12.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Tom McClintock · Republican
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Tom McClintock · Advanced to the general election | 61.3% | 129,653 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Michael Masuda · Advanced to the general election | 24.3% | 51,418 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 16.4 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 15.0 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 3 58%
- Former district 5 39%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated