Riding profile

CA-5

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

CA-5, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MCCLINTOCK, THOMAS

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Mcclintock, Thomas

  • Democrat Challenger

    Barkley, Michael James Mr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Danbom, Paul

  • Democrat Challenger

    Masuda, Michael

  • Democrat Challenger

    Sills, Katelyn Anne

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.5%
  • Democrat 42.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereCA-5 57.5%42.5%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.8 51.9% −9.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
16.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 3 (06003) 58%
  • Congressional District 5 (06005) 39%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026