Oklahoma’s 2nd District
U.S. House · OK-2
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 41.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OK-2 | 69.9% | 28.1% | 2.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+26.1 | 54.9%−26.8 | 1.2%+0.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.7% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Josh Brecheen · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Brandon Wade | 73.7% | 20,336 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Josh Brecheen | 79.2% | 65,906 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 52.7 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 41.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated