Riding profile

OK-2

US House district — OK · Mixed · us ok

The question

OK-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

OK-2, a mixed riding in OK, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 53-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 73% vote share, against 25% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BRECHEEN, JOSH

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Brecheen, Josh

  • Democrat Challenger

    Terwey, Erik

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
47.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 72.8%
  • Democrat 25.2%
  • Other 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereOK-2 72.8%25.2%1.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +26.2 51.9% −26.6 5.4% −3.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
52.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026