Oklahoma’s 1st District
U.S. House · OK-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 11%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 86% chance (96% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 96% |
| Orbit | Republican | 86% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 91% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OK-1 | 55.5% | 41.9% | 2.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+11.6 | 54.9%−13.0 | 1.2%+1.4 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 7.8% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Hern, Kevin · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | John Croisant | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Mark Tedford | 32.2% | 23,230 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 25.9 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 13.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated