Riding profile

OK-1

US House district — OK · Mixed · us ok

The question

OK-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

OK-1, a mixed riding in OK, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HERN, KEVIN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Hern, Kevin

  • Democrat Challenger

    Baker, Dennis

  • Democrat Open seat

    Croisant, John Thomas

  • Democrat Open seat

    Watkins, Erica

  • Republican Open seat

    Butterfield, Nathaniel Allen

  • Republican Open seat

    Cochran, Jed

  • Republican Open seat

    David, Kim

  • Republican Open seat

    Gill, Courtney

  • Republican Open seat

    Lahmeyer, Jackson

  • Republican Open seat

    Stallings, Jackson

  • Republican Open seat

    Tedford, Mark

  • Republican Open seat

    Woods, Todd

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 58.4%
  • Democrat 39.0%
  • Other 2.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereOK-1 58.4%39.0%2.6%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +11.8 51.9% −12.9 5.4% −2.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
25.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026