Riding profile
OK-1
The question
OK-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereOK-1 | 55.3% | 41.4% | 3.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +10.4 | 54.3% −12.9 | 5.1% −1.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
OK-1, a mixed riding in OK, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 41% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
HERN, KEVIN
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Hern, Kevin
-
Democrat Open seat Baker, Dennis
- Democrat Open seat
Croisant, John Thomas
- Democrat Open seat
Watkins, Erica
- Republican Open seat
Butterfield, Nathaniel Allen
- Republican Open seat
Cochran, Jed
- Republican Open seat
David, Kim
- Republican Open seat
Gill, Courtney
- Republican Open seat
Lahmeyer, Jackson
- Republican Open seat
Rooney, Dan
- Republican Open seat
Stallings, Jackson
- Republican Open seat
Tedford, Mark
- Republican Open seat
Woods, Todd
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026