Oklahoma’s 5th District

U.S. House · OK-5

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 23%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 54.8%

Stephanie Bice, incumbent
Democrat 45.2%

Jena Nelson

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 75% chance (92% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	92%
Orbit	Republican	75%
50/50 blend	Republican	83%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
OK-5	54.8%	45.2%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+10.9	54.9%−9.7

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Gbao	17–Sep 20, 2026	500	likely voters	Stephanie Bice (R) 48 Jena Nelson (D) 43	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	6.6% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Stephanie Bice · Republican

Primary results

Held June 16, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Jena Nelson	56.7%	26,886 votes
Republican primary	Stephanie Bice	0.0%

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Stephanie Bice
source
Democrat Challenger

Jena Nelson
source
Other Challenger

Henri, Robert Patrick

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 21.4 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.3 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

OK-4 Republican, safe seat
OK-1 Republican, safe seat
OK-2 Republican, safe seat
OK-3 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026