Riding profile

OK-5

US House district — OK · Mixed · us ok

The question

OK-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

OK-5, a mixed riding in OK, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BICE, STEPHANIE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Bice, Stephanie

  • Democrat Challenger

    Martin, Trey

  • Democrat Challenger

    Nelson, Jena

  • Other Challenger

    Henri, Robert Patrick

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 58.1%
  • Democrat 41.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereOK-5 58.1%41.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +11.4 51.9% −9.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
21.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026