Riding profile

OK-4

US House district — OK · Mixed · us ok

The question

OK-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

OK-4, a mixed riding in OK, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 64% vote share, against 32% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

COLE, TOM

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Cole, Tom

  • Democrat Challenger

    Jacob, Mitchell Leigh

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pixley, Jeffrey

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 64.0%
  • Democrat 32.0%
  • Other 4.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereOK-4 64.0%32.0%4.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +17.4 51.9% −19.9 5.4% −1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
37.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026