Riding profile
OK-4
The question
OK-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 26.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereOK-4 | 60.9% | 34.4% | 4.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +16.0 | 54.3% −19.9 | 5.1% −0.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
OK-4, a mixed riding in OK, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 61% vote share, against 34% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
COLE, TOM
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Cole, Tom
-
Democrat Challenger Jacob, Mitchell Leigh
- Democrat Challenger
Pixley, Jeffrey
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026