Oklahoma’s 4th District
U.S. House · OK-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 98% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 98% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OK-4 | 61.1% | 34.8% | 4.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+17.2 | 54.9%−20.1 | 1.2%+2.8 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 7.8% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Tom Cole · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Mitchell Jacob | 54.4% | 18,243 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Tom Cole | 71.1% | 52,717 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 37.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 26.3 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated