Riding profile

AR-4

US House district — AR · Mixed · us ar

The question

AR-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

AR-4, a mixed riding in AR, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 46-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 70% vote share, against 30% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

WESTERMAN, BRUCE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Westerman, Bruce

  • Democrat Challenger

    Russell, James Richard Mr III

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 69.9%
  • Democrat 30.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereAR-4 69.9%30.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +23.3 51.9% −21.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
45.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026