Riding profile
AR-4
The question
AR-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 34.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereAR-4 | 67.3% | 32.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +22.4 | 54.3% −21.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
AR-4, a mixed riding in AR, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 46-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 67% vote share, against 33% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
WESTERMAN, BRUCE
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Westerman, Bruce
-
Democrat Challenger Russell, James Richard Mr III
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026