Riding profile

AR-1

US House district — AR · Mixed · us ar

The question

AR-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

AR-1, a mixed riding in AR, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 49-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 72% vote share, against 28% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CRAWFORD, ERIC ALAN RICK

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Crawford, Eric Alan Rick

  • Democrat Challenger

    Green, Terri Yarbrough Dr.

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
43.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 71.5%
  • Democrat 27.8%
  • Other 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereAR-1 71.5%27.8%0.7%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +24.9 51.9% −24.1 5.4% −4.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
48.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026