Riding profile

AR-3

US House district — AR · Mixed · us ar

The question

AR-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 59.5%
  • Democrat 37.9%
  • Other 2.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereAR-3 59.5%37.9%2.6%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +14.6 54.3% −16.5 5.1% −2.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

AR-3, a mixed riding in AR, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 60% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

WOMACK, STEPHEN A THE HON

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Womack, Stephen A The Hon

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lawrence, Diana Lynne

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ryerse, Robb

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
32.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026