Riding profile

AR-3

US House district — AR · Mixed · us ar

The question

AR-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

AR-3, a mixed riding in AR, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 63% vote share, against 35% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

WOMACK, STEPHEN A THE HON

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Womack, Stephen A The Hon

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lawrence, Diana Lynne

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ryerse, Robb

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 62.6%
  • Democrat 35.5%
  • Other 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereAR-3 62.6%35.5%2.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +15.9 51.9% −16.4 5.4% −3.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
32.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026