Arkansas’s 3rd District
U.S. House · AR-3
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 94% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 94% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 97% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR-3 | 59.7% | 38.3% | 2.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+15.8 | 54.9%−16.6 | 1.2%+0.8 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 9.8% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Steve Womack · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Robb Ryerse | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Steve Womack | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 32.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 21.4 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated