Riding profile

AR-2

US House district — AR · Mixed · us ar

The question

AR-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

AR-2, a mixed riding in AR, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HILL, JAMES FRENCH

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Hill, James French

  • Democrat Challenger

    Huffman, Zackary Blake

  • Democrat Challenger

    Jones, Chris

  • Republican Challenger

    Mcdowell, Chase

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 56.4%
  • Democrat 43.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereAR-2 56.4%43.6%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +9.7 51.9% −8.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
17.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026