Arkansas’s 2nd District

U.S. House · AR-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 76% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.0 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 43%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 52.4%

French Hill, incumbent
Democrat 47.6%

Chris Jones

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 66% chance (76% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	76%
Orbit	Republican	66%
50/50 blend	Republican	71%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
AR-2	52.4%	47.6%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+8.6	54.9%−7.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls, 4 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Emerson College Poll Vault	12–Oct 14, 2026	383	likely voters	French Hill (R) 52 Chris Jones (D) 48	See the poll
Hendrix College Talk Business & Politics	11–Aug 12, 2026	1,112	likely voters	Chris Jones (D) 48 French Hill (R) 44	See the poll
2040 Strategy Group Scenario 1	Apr 28, 2026 – May 8, 2026	—	registered voters	Chris Jones (D) 47 French Hill (R) 41	See the poll
2040 Strategy Group Scenario 2	Apr 28, 2026 – May 8, 2026	—	likely voters	Chris Jones (D) 46 French Hill (R) 43	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.4% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

French Hill · Republican

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Chris Jones	92.6%	47,512 votes
Republican primary	French Hill	76.8%	49,079 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

French Hill
source
Democrat Challenger

Chris Jones
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 17.9 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 7.0 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

AR-1 Republican, safe seat
AR-4 Republican, safe seat
AR-3 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026