Riding profile
AR-2
The question
AR-2: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.3
- P(close race)
- 90%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereAR-2 | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +6.7 | 54.3% −6.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
3 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College Talk Business & Politics | 11–Aug 12 | 1,112 | LV | link | |
| 2040 Strategy Group | Apr 28 – May 8 | — | RV | link | |
| 2040 Strategy Group | Apr 28 – May 8 | — | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
AR-2, a mixed riding in AR, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
HILL, JAMES FRENCH
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Hill, James French
-
Democrat Challenger Huffman, Zackary Blake
- Democrat Challenger
Jones, Chris
- Republican Challenger
Mcdowell, Chase
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026