Riding profile

GA-2

US House district — GA · Mixed · us ga

The question

GA-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 62.1%

    Sanford Bishop incumbent

  • Republican 37.9%

    Matt Day

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereGA-2 62.1%37.9%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +7.8 44.9% −7.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

GA-2, a mixed riding in GA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BISHOP, SANFORD

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Sanford Bishop (I) 100.0%

72,498 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Matt Day 100.0%

42,639 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Bishop, Sanford

  • Republican Open seat

    Day, Matt

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
12.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.5 pts
Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026