Riding profile

ND-AL

US House district — ND · Mixed · us nd

The question

ND-AL: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

ND-AL, a mixed riding in ND, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 68% vote share, against 28% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FEDORCHAK, JULIE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Fedorchak, Julie

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hammer, Trygve

  • Republican Challenger

    Balazs, Alex

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 68.0%
  • Other 28.1%
  • Democrat 4.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Other Democrat
HereND-AL 68.0%28.1%4.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +21.3 5.4% +22.6 51.9% −47.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
38.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.4 pts
Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026