North Dakota — at-large district
U.S. House · ND-AL
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 37.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Other | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ND-AL | 65.0% | 28.1% | 6.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+21.2 | 1.2%+26.8 | 54.9%−48.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.4% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Julie Fedorchak · Republican
Primary results
| Republican primary | Julie Fedorchak | 72.9% | 59,719 votes |
|---|
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Julie Fedorchak
source -
Democrat Challenger Hammer, Trygve
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 38.5 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 37.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated