Riding profile

ND-AL

US House district — ND · Mixed · us nd

The question

ND-AL: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
36.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 64.9%
  • Other 28.7%
  • Democrat 6.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Other Democrat
HereND-AL 64.9%28.7%6.4%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +20.0 5.1% +23.6 54.3% −47.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

ND-AL, a mixed riding in ND, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 65% vote share, against 29% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FEDORCHAK, JULIE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Fedorchak, Julie

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hammer, Trygve

  • Republican Challenger

    Balazs, Alex

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
38.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.3 pts
Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026