West Virginia’s 1st District
U.S. House · WV-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 29.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WV-1 | 62.2% | 32.8% | 5.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+18.3 | 54.9%−22.1 | 1.2%+3.8 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 1.0% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Carol Miller · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Vince George | 53.0% | 23,503 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Carol Miller | 72.0% | 40,493 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 40.2 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 29.5 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated