Riding profile

WV-1

US House district — WV · Mixed · us wv

The question

WV-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 62.0%
  • Democrat 32.3%
  • Other 5.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereWV-1 62.0%32.3%5.7%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +17.1 54.3% −22.0 5.1% +0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

WV-1, a mixed riding in WV, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 62% vote share, against 32% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MILLER, CAROL DEVINE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Miller, Carol Devine

  • Democrat Challenger

    Aguirre, Britta

  • Democrat Challenger

    George, Vincent Raymond Mr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Evans, Jonathan Derrick

  • Republican Challenger

    Jackson, Larry

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
40.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026