Riding profile

KS-2

US House district — KS · Mixed · us ks

The question

KS-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.6
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.9%
  • Democrat 44.2%
  • Other 2.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereKS-2 52.9%44.2%2.9%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +7.9 54.3% −10.1 5.1% −2.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

KS-2, a mixed riding in KS, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SCHMIDT, DEREK

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Schmidt, Derek

  • Democrat Challenger

    Coover, Don

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
18.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026