Riding profile

KS-2

US House district — KS · Mixed · us ks

The question

KS-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

KS-2, a mixed riding in KS, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SCHMIDT, DEREK

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Schmidt, Derek

  • Democrat Challenger

    Coover, Don

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 55.9%
  • Democrat 41.8%
  • Other 2.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereKS-2 55.9%41.8%2.3%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +9.3 51.9% −10.0 5.4% −3.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
18.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026