Kansas’s 2nd District
U.S. House · KS-2
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 84% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.3 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 34%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 71% chance (84% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 84% |
| Orbit | Republican | 71% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 77% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KS-2 | 52.6% | 45.8% | 1.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+8.8 | 54.9%−9.1 | 1.2%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 8.4% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Derek Schmidt · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Don Coover | 100.0% | 38,737 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Derek Schmidt | 79.9% | 62,969 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 18.9 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 8.3 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated