Riding profile

KS-1

US House district — KS · Mixed · us ks

The question

KS-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 63.7%
  • Democrat 36.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereKS-1 63.7%36.3%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +18.8 54.3% −18.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

KS-1, a mixed riding in KS, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 64% vote share, against 36% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MANN, TRACEY ROBERT

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Musser, Craig A

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
38.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026