Riding profile

KS-1

US House district — KS · Mixed · us ks

The question

KS-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

KS-1, a mixed riding in KS, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 66% vote share, against 34% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MANN, TRACEY ROBERT

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Mann, Tracey Robert

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mcroberts, Kenneth Colin

  • Democrat Challenger

    Reinhold, Lauren

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 66.3%
  • Democrat 33.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereKS-1 66.3%33.8%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +19.6 51.9% −18.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
38.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026