Kansas’s 1st District
U.S. House · KS-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 97% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 97% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| KS-1 | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+19.6 | 54.9%−18.4 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 10.3% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Tracey Mann · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Lauren Reinhold | 64.1% | 25,074 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Tracey Mann | 81.0% | 74,523 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 38.3 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 27.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated