Riding profile

KS-3

US House district — KS · Mixed · us ks

The question

KS-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 60.4%
  • Republican 37.4%
  • Other 2.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereKS-3 60.4%37.4%2.2%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +6.1 44.9% −7.5 5.1% −2.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

KS-3, a mixed riding in KS, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 37% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DAVIDS, SHARICE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Davids, Sharice

  • Democrat Challenger

    Preu, Sarah

  • Republican Challenger

    Jenkins, Eric

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
10.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026