Riding profile

KS-4

US House district — KS · Mixed · us ks

The question

KS-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

KS-4, a mixed riding in KS, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ESTES, RON

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Estes, Ron

  • Democrat Challenger

    Carmichael, Chris

  • Democrat Challenger

    Tyndell, Katy

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 62.3%
  • Democrat 37.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereKS-4 62.3%37.7%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +15.7 51.9% −14.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
30.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026