Kansas’s 4th District
U.S. House · KS-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 90% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 90% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 95% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| KS-4 | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+15.6 | 54.9%−14.4 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 9.3% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Ron Estes · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Katy Tyndell | 66.1% | 27,899 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Ron Estes | 80.9% | 67,464 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 30.1 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 19.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated