Riding profile

KS-4

US House district — KS · Mixed · us ks

The question

KS-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 59.7%
  • Democrat 40.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereKS-4 59.7%40.3%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +14.8 54.3% −14.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

KS-4, a mixed riding in KS, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ESTES, RON

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Catanese, Paul Vincent

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
30.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026