Winner
MELANIE ANN STANSBURY 100.0%
Riding profile
NM-1
The question
NM-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 24.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereNM-1 | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +7.8 | 44.9% −7.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
NM-1, a mixed riding in NM, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
STANSBURY, MELANIE
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
NDIDIAMAKA EKWUA CHARLENE OKPAREKE 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Stansbury, Melanie
-
Republican Challenger Okpareke, Ndidiamaka
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026