Riding profile
NM-1
The question
NM-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Editorial read
NM-1, a mixed riding in NM, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
STANSBURY, MELANIE
Sits with Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Incumbent Stansbury, Melanie
-
Republican Challenger Jones, Steve
- Republican Challenger
Okpareke, Ndidiamaka
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereNM-1 | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 51.9% +7.5 | 46.6% −6.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026