New Mexico’s 3rd District

U.S. House · NM-3

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 61.1%

Teresa Leger Fernandez, incumbent
Republican 39.0%

Martin Zamora

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 96% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	> 99%
Orbit	Democrat	96%
50/50 blend	Democrat	98%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
NM-3	61.1%	39.0%
National averageUnited States	54.9%+6.2	43.9%−4.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Research & Polling Inc. Albuquerque Journal	1–Oct 9, 2026	362	likely voters	Teresa Leger Fernandez (D) 53 Martin Ruben Zamora (R) 39	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	37.3% (± 0.4)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Teresa Leger Fernandez · Democrat

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Teresa Leger Fernandez	100.0%	68,768 votes
Republican primary	Martin Zamora	100.0%	32,901 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Teresa Leger Fernandez
source
Republican Challenger

Martin Zamora
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 12.6 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 22.1 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NM-1 Democrat, safe seat
NM-2 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026