Riding profile

NM-2

US House district — NM · Mixed · us nm

The question

NM-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NM-2, a mixed riding in NM, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

VASQUEZ, GABRIEL

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Vasquez, Gabriel

  • Republican Challenger

    Cunningham, Greg

  • Republican Challenger

    Orozco, Jose

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.2
P(close race)
6%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 53.6%
  • Republican 46.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereNM-2 53.6%46.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +1.7 46.6% −0.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Co/Efficient NRCC 26–Apr 28 879 LV
Democrat 43 Republican 41
link
Co/Efficient NRCC 26–Apr 28 879 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 45
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
4.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026