Winner
GABRIEL VASQUEZ 100.0%
Riding profile
NM-2
The question
NM-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereNM-2 | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +3.2 | 44.9% −2.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
2 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Co/Efficient NRCC | 26–Apr 28 | 879 | LV | link | |
| Co/Efficient NRCC | 26–Apr 28 | 879 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
NM-2, a mixed riding in NM, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
VASQUEZ, GABRIEL
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
GREGORY G CUNNINGHAM 84.5%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Vasquez, Gabriel
-
Republican Challenger Cunningham, Greg
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026