New Mexico’s 2nd District

U.S. House · NM-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 12%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 56.4%

Gabriel Vasquez, incumbent
Republican 43.6%

Gregory G Cunningham

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 87% chance (96% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	96%
Orbit	Democrat	87%
50/50 blend	Democrat	92%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
NM-2	56.4%	43.6%
National averageUnited States	54.9%+1.5	43.9%−0.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls, 4 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Research & Polling Inc. Albuquerque Journal	1–Oct 9, 2026	383	likely voters	Gabriel Vasquez (D) 48 Greg Cunningham (R) 44	See the poll
Surveyusa KOB-TV (Albuquerque)	Aug 28, 2026 – Sep 2, 2026	554	likely voters	Gabriel Vasquez (D) 46 Greg Cunningham (R) 43	—
Co/Efficient NRCC Scenario 1	26–Apr 28, 2026	879	likely voters	Gabriel Vasquez (D) 43 Greg Cunningham (R) 41	See the poll
Co/Efficient NRCC Scenario 2	26–Apr 28, 2026	879	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 45 Generic Republican (R) 45	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	54.3% (± 0.8)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Gabriel Vasquez · Democrat

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Gabriel Vasquez	100.0%	47,123 votes
Republican primary	Gregory G Cunningham	84.5%	26,836 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Gabriel Vasquez
source
Republican Challenger

Gregory G Cunningham
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 4.2 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 13.1 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NM-1 Democrat, safe seat
NM-3 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026