Riding profile

CT-2

US House district — CT · Mixed · us ct

The question

CT-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 63.7%
  • Republican 36.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCT-2 63.7%36.3%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +9.4 44.9% −8.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

CT-2, a mixed riding in CT, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 64% vote share, against 36% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

COURTNEY, JOSEPH

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Courtney, Joseph

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gauck, Kyle

  • Republican Challenger

    Austin, George Patrick

  • Republican Challenger

    France, Mike

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
16.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026