Riding profile

CT-2

US House district — CT · Mixed · us ct

The question

CT-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CT-2, a mixed riding in CT, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

COURTNEY, JOSEPH

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Courtney, Joseph

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gauck, Kyle

  • Republican Challenger

    Austin, George Patrick

  • Republican Challenger

    France, Mike

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 61.0%
  • Republican 39.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCT-2 61.0%39.0%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +9.1 46.6% −7.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
16.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026