Riding profile

CT-1

US House district — CT · Mixed · us ct

The question

CT-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CT-1, a mixed riding in CT, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 64% vote share, against 33% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LARSON, JOHN B

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Luke Bronin 38%

4 candidates polled · Latest poll May 21, 2026 · byglobal_strategy_group

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Larson, John B

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bronin, Luke

  • Democrat Challenger

    Fortune, Ruth R.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gilchrest, Jillian

  • Democrat Challenger

    Perry, Jack

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
31.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 64.3%
  • Republican 32.9%
  • Other 2.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereCT-1 64.3%32.9%2.9%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +12.4 46.6% −13.8 5.4% −2.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
25.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026