Riding profile

CT-1

US House district — CT · Mixed · us ct

The question

CT-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
36.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 66.7%
  • Republican 29.8%
  • Other 3.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereCT-1 66.7%29.8%3.5%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +12.3 44.9% −15.1 5.1% −1.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

CT-1, a mixed riding in CT, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 67% vote share, against 30% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LARSON, JOHN B

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Larson, John B

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bronin, Luke

  • Democrat Challenger

    Fortune, Ruth R.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gilchrest, Jillian

  • Democrat Challenger

    Perry, Jack

  • Republican Challenger

    Chai, Amy Fogelstrom Dr

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
25.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026