Riding profile

CT-4

US House district — CT · Mixed · us ct

The question

CT-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CT-4, a mixed riding in CT, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HIMES, JIM

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Himes, Jim

  • Republican Challenger

    Goldstein, Michael

  • Republican Challenger

    Miressi, Dan

  • Republican Challenger

    Miressi, Daniel

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 64.9%
  • Republican 35.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCT-4 64.9%35.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +13.1 46.6% −11.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
23.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026