Riding profile

CT-5

US House district — CT · Mixed · us ct

The question

CT-5: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CT-5, a mixed riding in CT, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HAYES, JAHANA

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Hayes, Jahana

  • Republican Challenger

    Botelho, Michele

  • Republican Challenger

    De Barros, Jonathan

  • Republican Challenger

    Shea, Chris

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 55.6%
  • Republican 44.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereCT-5 55.6%44.2%0.2%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +3.7 46.6% −2.5 5.4% −5.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
4.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026