Riding profile

CT-5

US House district — CT · Mixed · us ct

The question

CT-5: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 58.0%
  • Republican 41.1%
  • Other 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereCT-5 58.0%41.1%0.9%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +3.7 44.9% −3.8 5.1% −4.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

CT-5, a mixed riding in CT, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 58% vote share, against 41% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HAYES, JAHANA

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Hayes, Jahana

  • Republican Challenger

    Botelho, Michele

  • Republican Challenger

    De Barros, Jonathan

  • Republican Challenger

    Shea, Chris

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
4.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026