Connecticut’s 5th District
U.S. House · CT-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 87% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | 98% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 87% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 92% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CT-5 | 57.3% | 42.5% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+2.4 | 43.9%−1.4 | 1.2%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 16.1% (± 0.5) |
|---|
Current member
Jahana Hayes · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Jahana Hayes | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Chris Shea | 81.0% | 10,261 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 4.2 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 14.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated