Riding profile

CT-3

US House district — CT · Mixed · us ct

The question

CT-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CT-3, a mixed riding in CT, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 63% vote share, against 37% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DELAURO, ROSA L

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Delauro, Rosa L

  • Democrat Challenger

    Denoble, Damjan

  • Other Challenger

    Rice, Andrew James Mr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Lancia, Christopher John Mr.

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 62.8%
  • Republican 37.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCT-3 62.8%37.2%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +10.9 46.6% −9.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
19.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026