Riding profile

WY-AL

US House district — WY · Mixed · us wy

The question

WY-AL: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

WY-AL, a mixed riding in WY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 46-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 67% vote share, against 26% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HAGEMAN, HARRIET

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Hageman, Harriet

  • Democrat Open seat

    Kinney, Lisa

  • Republican Open seat

    Balow, Jillian

  • Republican Open seat

    Biteman, Dennis Bo Dean II

  • Republican Open seat

    Chapman, Frank

  • Republican Open seat

    Giralt, David

  • Republican Open seat

    Gray, Chuck

  • Republican Open seat

    Rasner, Reid

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 66.8%
  • Democrat 26.2%
  • Other 7.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereWY-AL 66.8%26.2%7.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +20.2 51.9% −25.7 5.4% +1.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
45.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.1 pts
Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026