Riding profile

WY-AL

US House district — WY · Mixed · us wy

The question

WY-AL: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
35.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 63.8%

    Chuck Gray

  • Democrat 28.6%

    Lisa Kinney

  • Other 7.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereWY-AL 63.8%28.6%7.6%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +18.9 54.3% −25.7 5.1% +2.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

WY-AL, a mixed riding in WY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 46-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 64% vote share, against 29% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HAGEMAN, HARRIET

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Lisa Kinney 77.9%

9,343 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Chuck Gray 25.4%

31,222 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Kinney, Lisa

  • Republican Open seat

    Gray, Chuck

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
45.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.5 pts
Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026