Riding profile

MS-2

US House district — MS · Mixed · us ms

The question

MS-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MS-2, a mixed riding in MS, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

THOMPSON, BENNIE G.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Thompson, Bennie G.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Turnage, Evan

  • Republican Challenger

    Eller, Ron

  • Republican Challenger

    Wilson, Kevin

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 64.8%
  • Republican 35.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereMS-2 64.8%35.2%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +13.0 46.6% −11.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
24.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026