Riding profile
MS-3
The question
MS-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 87.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereMS-3 | 93.7% | 6.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +48.8 | 54.3% −48.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
MS-3, a mixed riding in MS, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 100-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 94% vote share, against 6% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
GUEST, MICHAEL PATRICK
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Guest, Michael Patrick
-
Democrat Challenger Chiaradio, Michael Alexis
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026